Robert Shiller: House Prices Won’t Hit Bottom For Years

Source - Tech Ticker

The July numbers for the most widely followed measure of house prices, the S&P/Case-Shiller Index, were released this morning.

The numbers weren't terrible--on a seasonally adjusted basis, July was basically the same as June--but one of the creators of the index, Professor Robert Shiller of Yale University, isn't taking much solace in them.

The economy has deteriorated significantly since July, Professor Shiller observes, and he suspects that the housing market has followed suit. And, from a broader perspective, house prices are still down more than 4% year over year.

In February, Professor Shiller startled those looking for an imminent "bottom" in house prices by suggesting that house prices could still fall 10% to 25%. He's standing by that assessment.

House prices won't necessarily plunge from here in nominal terms, but in real terms--after adjusting for inflation--they could still drop significantly, Professor Shiller says. And the bottom might not arrive for years.

Comments

[Harry Johnson]

Housing is grossly overpriced relative to wages. The only people who benefit by increases in housing price (not value) are the taxman, developers and the real estate salestrash by inflaitng their commissions. You cannot build an entire economy on housing price inflation. That is what was tried the last ten years or so. The productive economy has been dismantled. The so called service economy is really a salesboy economy. I buy stuff from Thailand, inflate the price and sell it to you, you buy stuff from China, inflate the price and sell it to me so we all become rich. Meanwhile the salesboy down the street tries to comvince us both to swap houses inflating the price each time so he can scam some more commissions for nothing. That economic recipe is a recipe for disaster. The economy has to be based on productive activity. amway style sales scams are just parasitism. The more there are the weaker the country becomes.

[DailyBail]

I agree with you Harry. Well said.